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Are these the lowest mortgage rates we’ll see in 2024?

Didier Malagies • September 24, 2024


Have we seen the bottom in mortgage rates for 2024 after a crazy roller coaster ride so far this year? My 2024 forecast had a mortgage rate range of 7.25%-5.75%. To get to the lower end of this range, we needed to see two things: the labor market getting softer and the mortgage spreads improving. This is the double-whammy impact, and that’s what has happened.


However, it’s still September, and we have three months to go! Can my lowest range forecast be wrong?

Yes, here’s how and why.

10-year yield and mortgage rates


My 2024 forecast included:

  • A range for mortgage rates between 7.25%-5.75%
  • A range for the 10-year yield between 4.25%-3.21%

How rates get to the lower-end range of the forecast is critical. There are two variables: the labor data getting softer is the prime one and the second one is the spreads getting better. Again, the double whammy of lower yields and spreads. This is not about more Fed rate cuts, because the market has priced in a lot Fed rate cuts already, but they haven’t priced in a recession yet. People wonder why rates went up after the bigger than expected Fed rate cut, as shown in the chart below. I talked about this in this HousingWire Daily podcast.


With the 10-year yield at 3.74% as of Friday, we have some room left to reach the very bottom of the 2024 forecast before the year is out. However, this will need the labor and economic data to get much weaker. That’s the first variable — the second one is the spreads.


Mortgage spreads

The mortgage spread story has been positive in 2024, whereas it was negative in 2023. We have seen a big move, which has helped, and we still have some runway left to return to historical norms. This can help get mortgage rates down toward 5.75%. If we took the worst spreads from 2023 and incorporated those today, mortgage rates would be 0.68% higher. At the same time, we are far from average with the spreads, as we are still 0.85% higher today than the low levels of 2022 in the chart below. 


Purchase application data

Purchase applications had another positive week, making the winning streak four weeks in a row — the longest of the year. Last week, purchase apps grew 5% weekly and fell 0.4% year over year. The slight decline year over year is the smallest decline since 2022. However, remember that last year at this time, mortgage rates were heading toward 8%, so the year-over-year comps will be easy to beat. That said, we have had a material change in data in the last 15 weeks.

This is what weekly purchase application data looked like with rising rates starting from the latter part of January:

  • 14 negative prints
  • 2 flat prints
  • 2 positive prints
  • 

As you can see, this was shaping up to be a highly negative year with the weekly application data. Before late January when rates started to rise, we had about eight weeks of positive trending purchase apps, and then the rising rates zapped the data in a very negative curve.




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By Didier Malagies November 20, 2024
The trend line for mortgage rates has been the same for several weeks, even as some of the uncertainty surrounding the 2024 election is fading. The cost of a home loan continues to move in a negative direction for U.S. consumers and housing professionals alike as the downward movement that started in August has been erased entirely. At HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center on Tuesday, the average rate for 30-year conforming loans was 6.99%. That was up 4 basis points (bps) from a week ago and 75 bps higher than when rates bottomed out in late September. Meanwhile, the 15-year conforming loan rate — which had been as low as 5.57% less than two months ago — stood at 6.98% on Tuesday.  The pace of increases is moderating. “Mortgage rates are expected to be lower today as bond yields have been decreasing throughout the night and early morning, slightly dropping further following the recent softer housing starts data,” HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami wrote on Tuesday.
By Didier Malagies November 18, 2024
Homebuyers who are part of Generation X — primarily born between the mid 1960s and the early 1980s — should keep accessibility features in mind as they approach retirement, since Americans are increasingly looking to age in place in their own homes once their time in the workforce is complete. This is according to a recent article at the Boston Globe that took a closer look at the kinds of homes that those currently in their mid-to-late 50s may want to prioritize as they look to the future. Not only is it a good idea to think ahead for themselves, the article explains, but many members of Gen X are also a part of the so-called “sandwich generation” where they may be taking care of both their own children, and their parents simultaneously. “So for those considering moving out of the homes where they raised their children, there are some key boxes to check to make living in their next house easiest for everyone,” the story said. The biggest aspect to keep in mind is the one that could make the biggest accessibility difference, and that is keeping the house confined primarily to a single floor. “In most of our remodeling, we use a design technique called Universal Design,” said Brian Harvey, owner of Boston-area business Harvey Home Modifications . “That essentially is a design that will serve anyone of any physical capability in the house.” Keeping in mind what is not needed is also a useful exercise, he said, and ensuring that door frames are wide enough to accommodate wheelchairs could be beneficial for any current or future wheelchair users that do, or will, reside in the home. Bathrooms are also a major focus, since they can often serve as common sites for falls or other accidents since slippery, wet surfaces can be easy to find. “If the home you’re hoping to buy doesn’t have the accessibility you’re looking for, you’ll want to check with a contractor to see what kind of renovations are possible,” the story said. One of the ways the reverse mortgage industry has aimed to position the potential value proposition for prospective borrowers is by the ability to use the loan proceeds to fund home modifications. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has also given attention to home modifications specifically for aging in place. This past summer, the department greenlit a new round of grant funding specifically to assist more older Americans with aging in place.  Reporting earlier this year by the Associated Press (AP) also tracked the increasing desire of older Americans to remain in their homes for longer, illustrating how they were increasingly “splurging” on home modifications to better fashion their living spaces for later life’s natural mobility limitations. Home improvement retailers have also taken notice, with The Home Depot refreshing an in-house brand with accessibility in mind for things like grab bars and easier-to-use faucets. In 2021, Lowe’s established a single stop for items including wheelchair ramps and shower benches, the AP reported.
By Didier Malagies November 18, 2024
When a property appraisal comes in lower than the agreed-upon purchase price, it can complicate financing for the buyer. Here's what typically happens for FHA, Conventional, and VA mortgages: 1. FHA Mortgages Impact of a Low Appraisal: The loan amount is limited to the lower of the purchase price or the appraised value. A low appraisal means the buyer must: Renegotiate the purchase price with the seller. Pay the difference in cash. Walk away if the contract allows it. Required Repairs: FHA appraisals assess both value and property condition. If issues arise (e.g., safety concerns), the seller or buyer must make repairs before closing. Appraisal Stays with the Property: FHA appraisals are tied to the property for 120 days. If a different FHA buyer comes along within that period, they inherit the appraisal value. 2. Conventional Mortgages Impact of a Low Appraisal: Conventional loans also limit the loan amount to the appraised value. If the appraisal is low, the buyer must: Negotiate a lower price with the seller. Increase their down payment to cover the gap. Cancel the deal if allowed by a financing contingency. Appraisal Appeal or Second Appraisal: Buyers or lenders can challenge the appraisal or request another one if there’s evidence the appraisal was inaccurate. More Flexibility: Conventional loans often have fewer property condition requirements than FHA or VA loans, so the appraisal focuses more on market value. 3. VA Mortgages Impact of a Low Appraisal: VA loans use a Notice of Value (NOV) to determine the property’s worth. If the NOV is lower than the purchase price, options include: Negotiating a price reduction with the seller. Paying the difference in cash. Requesting a "Reconsideration of Value" (ROV) through the VA if there’s a strong case for higher value. VA Escape Clause: VA loans include a clause allowing buyers to walk away if the property appraises lower than the purchase price without forfeiting their earnest money deposit. Minimum Property Requirements (MPRs): If the property doesn't meet VA MPRs, repairs are required before closing. General Buyer Options in Case of a Low Appraisal: Renegotiate Price: Sellers may agree to lower the price to match the appraisal. Bring Extra Cash: Buyers can cover the gap out-of-pocket. Challenge the Appraisal: Provide additional data to support a higher value. Walk Away: Utilize financing or appraisal contingencies to exit the deal. Would you like more details on how to handle a specific type of mortgage? tune in and learn at https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
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