Are these the lowest mortgage rates we’ll see in 2024?

Didier Malagies • September 24, 2024


Have we seen the bottom in mortgage rates for 2024 after a crazy roller coaster ride so far this year? My 2024 forecast had a mortgage rate range of 7.25%-5.75%. To get to the lower end of this range, we needed to see two things: the labor market getting softer and the mortgage spreads improving. This is the double-whammy impact, and that’s what has happened.


However, it’s still September, and we have three months to go! Can my lowest range forecast be wrong?

Yes, here’s how and why.

10-year yield and mortgage rates


My 2024 forecast included:

  • A range for mortgage rates between 7.25%-5.75%
  • A range for the 10-year yield between 4.25%-3.21%

How rates get to the lower-end range of the forecast is critical. There are two variables: the labor data getting softer is the prime one and the second one is the spreads getting better. Again, the double whammy of lower yields and spreads. This is not about more Fed rate cuts, because the market has priced in a lot Fed rate cuts already, but they haven’t priced in a recession yet. People wonder why rates went up after the bigger than expected Fed rate cut, as shown in the chart below. I talked about this in this HousingWire Daily podcast.


With the 10-year yield at 3.74% as of Friday, we have some room left to reach the very bottom of the 2024 forecast before the year is out. However, this will need the labor and economic data to get much weaker. That’s the first variable — the second one is the spreads.


Mortgage spreads

The mortgage spread story has been positive in 2024, whereas it was negative in 2023. We have seen a big move, which has helped, and we still have some runway left to return to historical norms. This can help get mortgage rates down toward 5.75%. If we took the worst spreads from 2023 and incorporated those today, mortgage rates would be 0.68% higher. At the same time, we are far from average with the spreads, as we are still 0.85% higher today than the low levels of 2022 in the chart below. 


Purchase application data

Purchase applications had another positive week, making the winning streak four weeks in a row — the longest of the year. Last week, purchase apps grew 5% weekly and fell 0.4% year over year. The slight decline year over year is the smallest decline since 2022. However, remember that last year at this time, mortgage rates were heading toward 8%, so the year-over-year comps will be easy to beat. That said, we have had a material change in data in the last 15 weeks.

This is what weekly purchase application data looked like with rising rates starting from the latter part of January:

  • 14 negative prints
  • 2 flat prints
  • 2 positive prints
  • 

As you can see, this was shaping up to be a highly negative year with the weekly application data. Before late January when rates started to rise, we had about eight weeks of positive trending purchase apps, and then the rising rates zapped the data in a very negative curve.




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By Didier Malagies November 17, 2025
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By Didier Malagies November 17, 2025
What Does “No Credit Score Mortgage” Mean (for FNMA) Policy Change As of November 15, 2025, Fannie Mae’s automated underwriting system (Desktop Underwriter, or DU) will no longer require a minimum third-party credit score. Fannie Mae Instead of relying on a fixed cutoff (like “you must have a 620 FICO”), DU will use Fannie Mae’s proprietary risk-assessment model to evaluate credit risk. Fannie Mae That model considers more than just credit score: payment history, “trended” credit data, nontraditional credit sources like rent, utilities, and so on. Fannie Mae Nontraditional Credit Allowed Fannie Mae’s Selling Guide includes rules for “nontraditional credit” — that is, credit history documented without a standard credit score. Selling Guide When a borrower truly has no credit score, lenders must document nontraditional credit history. For example, they might look at 12 months of cash flow or payment history (rent, utilities, insurance, etc.). Fannie requires borrowers without any credit score to complete homeownership education before closing. Selling Guide Why This Could Be a Good Thing Greater Access to Homeownership This change will likely help people who are “credit invisible” (i.e., they don’t have a traditional credit score) get conventional mortgages. Historically underserved groups (such as those who rent, use nontraditional credit, or have limited credit history) could benefit. More Holistic Underwriting By removing the rigid score minimum, DU can look at the whole financial picture. This means more weight on things like debt-to-income ratio, reserves, employment, and nontraditional credit. Using more data (rent history, payment trends) can be more predictive of whether someone will make mortgage payments than just a credit score. Potential Cost Benefits for Some Borrowers If done right, borrowers with limited credit but solid finances could qualify for a conventional loan (which may have more favorable terms than some other high-risk or subprime options). It may reduce the need for more expensive or risky loan products for people who don’t fit the “traditional” credit profile. Risks and Downsides Higher Risk for Lenders → Possibly Higher Cost Without a credit score floor, lenders are taking on more uncertainty. They may require larger down payments, lower loan-to-value ratios (LTVs), or more reserves to compensate. If the borrower is truly “credit invisible,” the lender’s verification burden is higher (to safely assess risk), which could make underwriting more stringent in non-score cases. Potential for Higher Interest Rates / Pricing Risks Even if a borrower qualifies, the interest rate may be higher compared to someone with a very good credit score, because the risk model may not “discount” as heavily without a high score. There could be loan-level price adjustments (or other risk-based pricing) tied to the riskiness of nontraditional credit profiles. Performance Uncertainty This is a newer underwriting paradigm for Fannie Mae, so long-term performance is less “battle-tested” at scale for certain nontraditional credit borrowers. If default rates go up for these loans, it could have negative implications for lenders or investors (or for how such loans are underwritten in the future). Lender Overlays Just because Fannie Mae has this policy doesn’t mean all lenders will be aggressive in offering no-score loans. Some may add their own stricter requirements (“overlays”) that make it harder than it sounds. You’ll need a lender that is comfortable underwriting nontraditional credit and willing to do the extra documentation. Is It a Good Thing For You Personally? It depends on your situation: Yes, it could be great if: You don’t have a traditional credit score but have a solid financial picture (stable income, low debt, documented payment history for rent/utilities). You want access to a mainstream, conventional mortgage. You have enough reserves/down payment to satisfy lender’s risk assessment. Be cautious if: Your income or cash flow is marginal, because the lender may not be comfortable with “no score + limited reserves.” You don’t have much documentation of nontraditional credit (you’ll need to show 12 months or more of payment history). You’re not working with a lender that understands or is experienced with Fannie Mae’s nontraditional credit program. My Verdict Overall, yes — this is a positive shift by Fannie Mae toward more inclusive, flexible underwriting. It’s likely to help more people who’ve been shut out of conventional mortgages. But it’s not “free risk”: borrowers still need to show financial responsibility, and lenders will underwrite carefully. If you are considering this type of mortgage (or someone offered it to you), I strongly recommend: Talking to a lender experienced with Fannie Mae’s nontraditional credit program. Didier Malagies nmls212566 DDA Mortgage nmls324329 .
By Didier Malagies November 10, 2025
✅ the principal you borrowed ✅ all interest paid over the years ❌ It does NOT include taxes, insurance, or HOA unless noted. Because longer terms spread payments out more slowly, they lower the monthly payment but massively increase total interest paid. Below is a simple example to show how total payments change by loan term. ✅ Example: $300,000 loan at 6% interest 15-Year Mortgage Monthly payment: ≈ $2,531 Total paid: ≈ $455,682 Total interest: ≈ $155,682 30-Year Mortgage Monthly payment: ≈ $1,799 Total paid: ≈ $647,514 Total interest: ≈ $347,514 40-Year Mortgage Monthly payment: ≈ $1,650 Total paid: ≈ $792,089 Total interest: ≈ $492,089 50-Year Mortgage Monthly payment: ≈ $1,595 Didier Malagies nmls212566 DDA Mortgage nmls32432 Total paid: ≈ $956,140 Total interest: ≈ $656,140 ✅ Summary: Total Payments by Loan Term Term Monthly Payment Total Paid Over Life Total Interest 15-Year ~$2,531 $455,682 $155,682 30-Year ~$1,799 $647,514 $347,514 40-Year ~$1,650 $792,089 $492,089 50-Year ~$1,595 $956,140 $656,140 ✅ Key Takeaway A longer mortgage = lower payment, but the total paid skyrockets because interest accrues for decades longer. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
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