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Mortgage rates blow past industry predictions Turmoil abroad could send rates back down, economists say

Didier Malagies • February 15, 2022


Some mortgage rate indices topped 4% on Thursday, blowing past predictions that rates might reach those levels by the end of 2022.


Economists had predicted rates would rise as the overall economy stabilized. The latest mortgage rate survey from Freddie Mac puts rates for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 3.69%, while the average rate in the latest mortgage application survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association was 3.83%.


Other indices put mortgage rates even higher. Black Knight‘s Optimal Blue, which provides data for the secondary market, reported the average rate for 30-year conforming mortgages was 4.071% on Friday morning. It reported the 30-year rate for FHA-insured mortgages was even higher, at 4.122%.

Joel Kan, associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, at the Mortgage Bankers Association said rates could head even higher in 2022.


“If conditions stay in the current state, we’ll certainly see higher rates,” said Kan. “But it’s also useful to know that we’ve seen rates drop pretty quickly if there is some other kind of economic news that’s unexpected.”

Rates could quickly head in the other direction, Kan said, “if something abroad rocks the boat,” such as an armed conflict with Russia and Ukraine, an emergent Covid variant, or a sudden change in certain commodity prices. Mortgage rates declined at the onset of the Delta variant, although the effect on mortgage rates was less pronounced with the Omicron variant.


“Bad news for the general economy is paradoxically good for the housing market in so far as rates would decline,” said Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist of Freddie Mac.


Few industries are as impacted by market fluctuations as housing. The current higher rates — an increase of nearly 50 basis points over the past month — will lead to “an enormous contraction of refinance activity,” Kiefer said.


On the ground, that means that lenders’ gain on sale margins will contract, as originating purchase mortgages is more costly than refinances. Margins have already fallen in the case of Wells Fargo and loanDepot.


And it means that lenders, many of whom ramped up hiring in the past two years to keep up with demand for refinances, are now shedding loan officers.


Randy Howell, president of Mortgage Power Inc., expects the layoffs trend to intensify in light of higher rates. He also pointed out that originators, who may feel “desperate” in the current environment, might cut corners.


LOs are “going to lower their standards of ethics and try to get things past underwriters,” he said. 

And while overall, the share of refinances will drop, they will not disappear completely. Gary Hughes, LO at RPM Mortgage Inc., said there may even be a rush of borrowers who refinance before rates go even higher, to “try and cap the ‘hurt’ from missing out on lower rates.”


Higher rates are seen as bad news for many parts of the mortgage market. But two categories are not as susceptible to higher interest rates: cash-out refis and home equity lines of credit.


“Those are two business channels right now that will probably flourish for the rest of the year, because there’s a lot of equity-rich homeowners out there,” Hughes said. “They may want to leverage that money and realize that 4% or 4.5% is still better than what they might get elsewhere.”





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By Didier Malagies December 20, 2024
Older homeowners have an overwhelming preference to age in place , but these circumstances can also come with unique challenges. Feelings of isolation and loneliness rank highly among these issues, but a recent study suggests that aging in place with a pet can make a big difference. The study, highlighted in Psychology Today , also noted that having pets in later life can come with its own set of unique challenges , according to Ann Toohey, one of the authors of the study who is based at the University of Calgary. The study followed initial interviews conducted in 2015 by examining how owning a pet impacted the lives of older people aging in place in their homes. According to the study, several takeaways emerged, including that the companionship of a pet makes a difference in their owners’ lives. While the companionship provided is understandably different from what is offered by another person, it also came with other potential social benefits for the seniors who owned pets. “As it happened, most of the people in this study were single,” the report in Psychology Today noted. “Having a dog, in particular, was a good way to get to know other people, so pets could also increase the size of participants’ social networks.” Finding pet-friendly housing can be an issue, according to the respondents. While the subjects were committed to keeping their pets, the housing challenges that pets can present made for a unique challenge. “Because people did not want to give up their pets, they sometimes had to accept housing that was less than ideal or even not safe due to other people in the home,” the report explained. Pets can also have other impacts on an older person’s mental well being, the study found, particularly if an older pet owner endured certain health-related challenges. “As people got older, they sometimes had difficult circumstances to deal with, such as serious issues with their own health,” the report said. “Caring for their pet provided meaning through these hard times, and a sense of things continuing to be the same, at least in some regards. In this way, the pet helped them to cope with the challenges.” Toohey added that while the seniors profiled in the study were generally committed to keeping their pets, the potential housing challenges that pet ownership can present for some older people seeking housing need to be addressed. There is a lot of potential for what she calls “companion animal relationships” to promote health in “many ways that are salient to aging.” These include spurring physical activity by walking a pet, companionship and potential involvement in pet-centric social activities with other pet owners. But certain challenges are also a factor, including the cost of pet supplies, a lack of affordable support if a pet owner becomes ill, and the need for veterinary care. There are also housing-related challenges, which could include “the prevalence of no pet rules to size restrictions to extra fees,” she said. In terms of housing policies tied to aging in place, these barriers could have the most impact, according to the report. “Greater availability of seniors’ housing that allows pets would be very beneficial and would make it easier for people to age in place with their pet,” the report said. “This would benefit those who aren’t seniors too, as more pet-friendly housing would help a wide range of people.”  This is on top of other well-documented challenges older people can face when trying to age in place. These include the high cost of long-term care , a need to create more walkable communities and housing supply illus trates that impact prospective homebuyers of all ages.
By Didier Malagies December 17, 2024
Older homeowners have an overwhelming preference to age in place , but these circumstances can also come with unique challenges. Feelings of isolation and loneliness rank highly among these issues, but a recent study suggests that aging in place with a pet can make a big difference. The study, highlighted in Psychology Today , also noted that having pets in later life can come with its own set of unique challenges , according to Ann Toohey, one of the authors of the study who is based at the University of Calgary. The study followed initial interviews conducted in 2015 by examining how owning a pet impacted the lives of older people aging in place in their homes. According to the study, several takeaways emerged, including that the companionship of a pet makes a difference in their owners’ lives. While the companionship provided is understandably different from what is offered by another person, it also came with other potential social benefits for the seniors who owned pets. “As it happened, most of the people in this study were single,” the report in Psychology Today noted. “Having a dog, in particular, was a good way to get to know other people, so pets could also increase the size of participants’ social networks.” Finding pet-friendly housing can be an issue, according to the respondents. While the subjects were committed to keeping their pets, the housing challenges that pets can present made for a unique challenge. “Because people did not want to give up their pets, they sometimes had to accept housing that was less than ideal or even not safe due to other people in the home,” the report explained. Pets can also have other impacts on an older person’s mental well being, the study found, particularly if an older pet owner endured certain health-related challenges. “As people got older, they sometimes had difficult circumstances to deal with, such as serious issues with their own health,” the report said. “Caring for their pet provided meaning through these hard times, and a sense of things continuing to be the same, at least in some regards. In this way, the pet helped them to cope with the challenges.” Toohey added that while the seniors profiled in the study were generally committed to keeping their pets, the potential housing challenges that pet ownership can present for some older people seeking housing need to be addressed. There is a lot of potential for what she calls “companion animal relationships” to promote health in “many ways that are salient to aging.” These include spurring physical activity by walking a pet, companionship and potential involvement in pet-centric social activities with other pet owners. But certain challenges are also a factor, including the cost of pet supplies, a lack of affordable support if a pet owner becomes ill, and the need for veterinary care. There are also housing-related challenges, which could include “the prevalence of no pet rules to size restrictions to extra fees,” she said. In terms of housing policies tied to aging in place, these barriers could have the most impact, according to the report. “Greater availability of seniors’ housing that allows pets would be very beneficial and would make it easier for people to age in place with their pet,” the report said. “This would benefit those who aren’t seniors too, as more pet-friendly housing would help a wide range of people.”  This is on top of other well-documented challenges older people can face when trying to age in place. These include the high cost of long-term care , a need to create more walkable communities and housing supply illus trates that impact prospective homebuyers of all ages.
By Didier Malagies December 16, 2024
A condo questionnaire is a critical document that lenders use during the mortgage approval process for condominium purchases. It provides detailed information about the condo complex's financial health, rules, regulations, and overall condition. Problems with the condo questionnaire can create delays or complications during the closing process. Here are some common issues that might cause problems: 1. Financial Health Concerns High percentage of owner-occupancy: Many lenders require that at least 50% (or more) of the units in the complex be owner-occupied rather than rented. If a condo complex has too many renters, it could impact the lender’s willingness to approve a loan. Reserve fund issues: Lenders typically want to see that the condo association has sufficient funds in its reserve account for future maintenance and emergencies. If the reserve fund is too low or non-existent, it raises concerns about the financial stability of the association, leading to potential loan rejection. Delinquencies in condo fees: A high rate of delinquencies in the condo association fees can signal financial instability, which lenders may view as a risk. This can delay or halt the approval process. 2. Insurance Coverage Problems Lack of adequate insurance: Lenders require that the condo association carries specific types of insurance, including property insurance and liability coverage. If the condo association's insurance policy doesn’t meet the lender's criteria, the loan may be delayed or denied. Insufficient flood insurance: If the condo is in a flood zone, the association is required to have flood insurance. A deficiency in this area can cause significant issues with closing. 3. Pending or Recent Litigation Ongoing lawsuits: If the condo association is involved in a lawsuit (e.g., against contractors, residents, or local authorities), it can be a red flag for lenders. Lawsuits can create financial and legal uncertainty, so lenders may hesitate to approve a loan until the matter is resolved. History of litigation: Even if the condo association is not currently involved in litigation, a history of legal problems could still concern lenders and complicate the approval process. 4. Non-Compliance with Condominium Guidelines Failure to meet FHA/VA guidelines: Some buyers are using FHA or VA loans, which have specific guidelines regarding condo developments. If the condo does not meet these criteria (for example, not having enough unit owners, or a commercial component taking up too much space), it can prevent the buyer from securing the loan. Non-compliant rules or by-laws: If the condo association's rules or by-laws are outdated or do not comply with lender requirements (such as restrictions on renting out units), it can create issues. 5. Discrepancies or Incomplete Information Incomplete or missing information: If the condo questionnaire is not fully completed or there is missing information about the financials or maintenance issues, lenders may hold up the approval process. Incorrect or inconsistent data: Discrepancies between the information provided in the questionnaire and the condo association’s financial statements can raise red flags, requiring additional clarification or investigation. 6. Excessive Commercial Units or Mixed-Use Properties High commercial occupancy: If a condo development has a high percentage of commercial space or mixed-use properties (residential and commercial), lenders might view this as risky. Lenders prefer predominantly residential complexes since they have a lower risk profile. 7. Special Assessments Upcoming or recent special assessments: If the condo association has recently passed a special assessment (a fee charged to condo owners for unexpected repairs or improvements) or plans to do so in the near future, it can lead to concerns about the financial health of the complex and may affect the lender's decision to approve the loan. 8. Age of the Building Older buildings with deferred maintenance: Lenders might be cautious about approving loans for condos in older buildings that have not been well-maintained. They may require detailed maintenance records or a building inspection to ensure that the property is in good condition. Conclusion Issues with the condo questionnaire that could cause problems during closing typically revolve around the financial stability, legal status, and physical condition of the condo association and its property. It's important for both the buyer and the seller to address these issues early in the process by working with the condo association to provide accurate, complete, and compliant documentation to the lender. By messaging ChatGPT, you agree to our Terms and have read our Privacy Policy. Don't share sensitive info. Chats may be reviewed and used to train our models. Learn more tune in and learn at https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
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