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My prediction on interest rates in 2025

Didier Malagies • December 2, 2024

Predicting interest rate movements in 2025 depends on various economic factors, including inflation, employment trends, central bank policies, and global financial conditions. Here's a general overview:


Key Factors Affecting Interest Rates:

Inflation:


Central banks like the Federal Reserve adjust interest rates to manage inflation. If inflation stays high, rates may remain elevated. If inflation moderates, there could be a case for lowering rates.

Economic Growth:


Strong economic growth might keep rates steady or higher, while signs of economic slowdown could lead to rate cuts to stimulate activity.

Central Bank Policy:


In 2023 and 2024, many central banks raised rates to combat inflation. By 2025, they might shift focus depending on how well inflation is controlled and economic growth sustains.

Labor Market:


A robust job market might delay rate cuts, while rising unemployment could prompt reductions.

Global Conditions:


Factors like geopolitical events, commodity prices, and trade dynamics will also play a role.

Expert Predictions:

Economists and financial analysts have varying opinions, often influenced by current data and expectations about future trends. Many anticipate that rates could stabilize or decrease by 2025 if inflation is tamed and the economy requires additional support.


If you'd like more up-to-date insights or analysis closer to 2025, let me know, and I can provide the latest expert views.



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By Didier Malagies December 3, 2024
After spending their entire career in the “accumulation” phase of wealth building, retirees who then have to transition into the “decumulation” phase — spending down their assets with no additional employment income — is a source of stress for nearly half of American retirees. This is according to a study conducted by the Alliance for Lifetime Income . The study used a targeted respondent pool of 2,516 people between the ages 45 and 75. The majority of respondents singled out inflation and the cost of living (82%) as the key issues impeding their retirement savings plans. Health care costs came in second at 70%. But the decumulation phase is a clear source of anxiety for retirees, the results of the survey explained, since it involves acting in the opposite way about finances when compared to a disciplined savings plan that may have been in place for decades. “Not having a clear plan for drawing-down savings and knowing how to generate income in retirement are major contributing factors to people’s anxiety,” the survey results explained. “Alarmingly, fewer than a third of respondents (32%) said they have a specific income plan in place for retirement. 41% said they don’t know how to stage withdrawals from their accounts, and fewer than half (49%) know how to handle required minimum distributions or minimize taxes, both essential pieces to sound retirement income planning.” Three tasks emerged for respondents as nearly equally difficult or confusing when it comes to creating plans for retirement spending — prioritizing what to spend money on, determining how much must be set aside to cover health costs, and how to optimize a pattern of withdrawals from accounts. Adding to the anxiety for many older Americans is the poor condition of the Social Security trust fund and the lack of political will from lawmakers to adequately address an expected 2035 shortfall in benefit payments. “Over a third (37%) of consumers have already started claiming Social Security, with 67% saying they did so because they are disabled or needed income, while 28% started early withdrawals out of fear Social Security will not be available or their payments will be cut, or they will die before reaching full retirement age,” the survey results stated. The decision to begin claiming these benefits is primarily based on personal judgment. Nearly three in four (73%) of respondents decided on their own to begin claims compared to only 9% who did so on the advice of a financial adviser. Jean Statler, CEO of the Alliance for Lifetime Income, emphasized the emotional issues that could stem from realizing that a paycheck from work is no longer coming and being “left with a lump-sum of money that has to last for what could be 20, 30 or more years,” she said.  “If there’s just one thing you can do to prepare and lower your anxiety, it’s having a clear retirement income plan,” Statler said. “And the most important thing in that plan is having enough protected income between Social Security, annuities, or a pension, to cover your basics — those essential expenses you have to pay for like housing and food.”
By Didier Malagies November 27, 2024
After spending their entire career in the “accumulation” phase of wealth building, retirees who then have to transition into the “decumulation” phase — spending down their assets with no additional employment income — is a source of stress for nearly half of American retirees. This is according to a study conducted by the Alliance for Lifetime Income . The study used a targeted respondent pool of 2,516 people between the ages 45 and 75. The majority of respondents singled out inflation and the cost of living (82%) as the key issues impeding their retirement savings plans. Health care costs came in second at 70%. But the decumulation phase is a clear source of anxiety for retirees, the results of the survey explained, since it involves acting in the opposite way about finances when compared to a disciplined savings plan that may have been in place for decades. “Not having a clear plan for drawing-down savings and knowing how to generate income in retirement are major contributing factors to people’s anxiety,” the survey results explained. “Alarmingly, fewer than a third of respondents (32%) said they have a specific income plan in place for retirement. 41% said they don’t know how to stage withdrawals from their accounts, and fewer than half (49%) know how to handle required minimum distributions or minimize taxes, both essential pieces to sound retirement income planning.” Three tasks emerged for respondents as nearly equally difficult or confusing when it comes to creating plans for retirement spending — prioritizing what to spend money on, determining how much must be set aside to cover health costs, and how to optimize a pattern of withdrawals from accounts. Adding to the anxiety for many older Americans is the poor condition of the Social Security trust fund and the lack of political will from lawmakers to adequately address an expected 2035 shortfall in benefit payments. “Over a third (37%) of consumers have already started claiming Social Security, with 67% saying they did so because they are disabled or needed income, while 28% started early withdrawals out of fear Social Security will not be available or their payments will be cut, or they will die before reaching full retirement age,” the survey results stated. The decision to begin claiming these benefits is primarily based on personal judgment. Nearly three in four (73%) of respondents decided on their own to begin claims compared to only 9% who did so on the advice of a financial adviser. Jean Statler, CEO of the Alliance for Lifetime Income, emphasized the emotional issues that could stem from realizing that a paycheck from work is no longer coming and being “left with a lump-sum of money that has to last for what could be 20, 30 or more years,” she said.  “If there’s just one thing you can do to prepare and lower your anxiety, it’s having a clear retirement income plan,” Statler said. “And the most important thing in that plan is having enough protected income between Social Security, annuities, or a pension, to cover your basics — those essential expenses you have to pay for like housing and food.”
By Didier Malagies November 20, 2024
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