Real Estate The good, the bad, and the likely for housing in 2021 Hopes are high for a stronger 2021

Didier Malagies • December 24, 2020

Real EstateThe good, the bad, and the likely for housing in 2021

Hopes are high for a stronger 2021

Despite the pandemic, incredibly, the housing market has surpassed all expectations in 2020. Applications to purchase a home hit a low point in the spring due to stay-at-home orders and mandated business closures, but have rebounded swiftly.


As of the week ending December 4, purchase loan applications have exceeded year-ago levels for 29-straight weeks, and cumulative purchase applications have surpassed 2019 levels. The pace of existing- and new-home sales mirrors the strength in purchase loan applications. New- and existing-home sales are at a post-Great Recession high. While the speed and magnitude of the housing recovery was surprising, the strong underlying fundamentals serving as tailwinds for the housing market’s recovery were not, and these tailwinds are expected to remain strong in 2021.


2021 housing market tailwinds: Rates, demographics and supply


Low Mortgage Rates: According to our Potential Home Sales Model, the increase in house-buying power driven by historically low mortgage rates was a significant driver of the housing rebound from April through October. In 2021, consensus forecasts estimate the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate will likely be 3% – with forecasts ranging from 2.8% to 3.3%. Low mortgage rates will boost house-buying power and keep purchase demand robust.


Pent-Up Demographics: Millennials are the largest and most educated generational group in history – approximately 72 million strong in 2019. The bulk of this generation turned 30 this year and are beginning to enter their prime home-buying years. More than half of all the purchase mortgages originated by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac went to first-time home buyers in data available for 2020, and this trend shows no signs of abating in 2021.


Our analysis shows that Millennials may account for at least 15 million home sales in the next 10 years. This is a conservative estimate that does not take into consideration the higher educational attainment and household income of this generation relative to their predecessors. Adding fuel to the housing demand fire is the increase in the personal savings rate, which climbed to an all-time high in April and remains above the historical average as pandemic-driven restrictions are limiting discretionary spending.


For young people that are still employed, increased savings can be used as a down payment, which is typically the biggest hurdle for first-time home buyers. In 2021, older Millennials will continue to form households, recession or not, which will put upward pressure on demand for homeownership.




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By Didier Malagies November 17, 2025
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By Didier Malagies November 17, 2025
What Does “No Credit Score Mortgage” Mean (for FNMA) Policy Change As of November 15, 2025, Fannie Mae’s automated underwriting system (Desktop Underwriter, or DU) will no longer require a minimum third-party credit score. Fannie Mae Instead of relying on a fixed cutoff (like “you must have a 620 FICO”), DU will use Fannie Mae’s proprietary risk-assessment model to evaluate credit risk. Fannie Mae That model considers more than just credit score: payment history, “trended” credit data, nontraditional credit sources like rent, utilities, and so on. Fannie Mae Nontraditional Credit Allowed Fannie Mae’s Selling Guide includes rules for “nontraditional credit” — that is, credit history documented without a standard credit score. Selling Guide When a borrower truly has no credit score, lenders must document nontraditional credit history. For example, they might look at 12 months of cash flow or payment history (rent, utilities, insurance, etc.). Fannie requires borrowers without any credit score to complete homeownership education before closing. Selling Guide Why This Could Be a Good Thing Greater Access to Homeownership This change will likely help people who are “credit invisible” (i.e., they don’t have a traditional credit score) get conventional mortgages. Historically underserved groups (such as those who rent, use nontraditional credit, or have limited credit history) could benefit. More Holistic Underwriting By removing the rigid score minimum, DU can look at the whole financial picture. This means more weight on things like debt-to-income ratio, reserves, employment, and nontraditional credit. Using more data (rent history, payment trends) can be more predictive of whether someone will make mortgage payments than just a credit score. Potential Cost Benefits for Some Borrowers If done right, borrowers with limited credit but solid finances could qualify for a conventional loan (which may have more favorable terms than some other high-risk or subprime options). It may reduce the need for more expensive or risky loan products for people who don’t fit the “traditional” credit profile. Risks and Downsides Higher Risk for Lenders → Possibly Higher Cost Without a credit score floor, lenders are taking on more uncertainty. They may require larger down payments, lower loan-to-value ratios (LTVs), or more reserves to compensate. If the borrower is truly “credit invisible,” the lender’s verification burden is higher (to safely assess risk), which could make underwriting more stringent in non-score cases. Potential for Higher Interest Rates / Pricing Risks Even if a borrower qualifies, the interest rate may be higher compared to someone with a very good credit score, because the risk model may not “discount” as heavily without a high score. There could be loan-level price adjustments (or other risk-based pricing) tied to the riskiness of nontraditional credit profiles. Performance Uncertainty This is a newer underwriting paradigm for Fannie Mae, so long-term performance is less “battle-tested” at scale for certain nontraditional credit borrowers. If default rates go up for these loans, it could have negative implications for lenders or investors (or for how such loans are underwritten in the future). Lender Overlays Just because Fannie Mae has this policy doesn’t mean all lenders will be aggressive in offering no-score loans. Some may add their own stricter requirements (“overlays”) that make it harder than it sounds. You’ll need a lender that is comfortable underwriting nontraditional credit and willing to do the extra documentation. Is It a Good Thing For You Personally? It depends on your situation: Yes, it could be great if: You don’t have a traditional credit score but have a solid financial picture (stable income, low debt, documented payment history for rent/utilities). You want access to a mainstream, conventional mortgage. You have enough reserves/down payment to satisfy lender’s risk assessment. Be cautious if: Your income or cash flow is marginal, because the lender may not be comfortable with “no score + limited reserves.” You don’t have much documentation of nontraditional credit (you’ll need to show 12 months or more of payment history). You’re not working with a lender that understands or is experienced with Fannie Mae’s nontraditional credit program. My Verdict Overall, yes — this is a positive shift by Fannie Mae toward more inclusive, flexible underwriting. It’s likely to help more people who’ve been shut out of conventional mortgages. But it’s not “free risk”: borrowers still need to show financial responsibility, and lenders will underwrite carefully. If you are considering this type of mortgage (or someone offered it to you), I strongly recommend: Talking to a lender experienced with Fannie Mae’s nontraditional credit program. Didier Malagies nmls212566 DDA Mortgage nmls324329 .
By Didier Malagies November 10, 2025
✅ the principal you borrowed ✅ all interest paid over the years ❌ It does NOT include taxes, insurance, or HOA unless noted. Because longer terms spread payments out more slowly, they lower the monthly payment but massively increase total interest paid. Below is a simple example to show how total payments change by loan term. ✅ Example: $300,000 loan at 6% interest 15-Year Mortgage Monthly payment: ≈ $2,531 Total paid: ≈ $455,682 Total interest: ≈ $155,682 30-Year Mortgage Monthly payment: ≈ $1,799 Total paid: ≈ $647,514 Total interest: ≈ $347,514 40-Year Mortgage Monthly payment: ≈ $1,650 Total paid: ≈ $792,089 Total interest: ≈ $492,089 50-Year Mortgage Monthly payment: ≈ $1,595 Didier Malagies nmls212566 DDA Mortgage nmls32432 Total paid: ≈ $956,140 Total interest: ≈ $656,140 ✅ Summary: Total Payments by Loan Term Term Monthly Payment Total Paid Over Life Total Interest 15-Year ~$2,531 $455,682 $155,682 30-Year ~$1,799 $647,514 $347,514 40-Year ~$1,650 $792,089 $492,089 50-Year ~$1,595 $956,140 $656,140 ✅ Key Takeaway A longer mortgage = lower payment, but the total paid skyrockets because interest accrues for decades longer. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
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