The best news home report ever

Didier Malagies • November 27, 2020

The Best News Home Report Ever



Sometimes keeping things simple makes the message more clear. I have been consistent in my stance that during the years 2008 to 2019, we had the weakest housing recovery ever. I said that housing starts would never start a year at 1.5 million until we reached the years 2020-2024. Only then would we see enough demand from the new home sales market to warrant that much construction.

This hasn’t happened yet, but the recent hew home sales report indicates we are

 getting there.


The Census Bureau reports: “New Home Sales Sales of new single-family houses in October 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 999,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.3% (±13.6%)* below the revised September rate of 1,002,000, but is 41.5% (±22.6%) above the October 2019 estimate of 706,000.” 


Along with the growth in new home sales, the monthly supply for new homes has declined dramatically. This data line has always been my most crucial housing chart to follow, and it has never looked better.

Again from the Census report: “The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 278,000. This represents a supply of 3.3 months at the current sales rate.” 


Why is builder confidence at an all-time? Anything below 4.3 months of supply indicates that builders will have the utmost confidence to build. Higher levels of Inventory in the range of 4.4 to 6.4 months indicate slow and steady growth for housing starts, like what we saw from in the previous expansion.


If inventory breaks over 6.5 months, then the market has issues, and builders will likely stall on construction. This happened in 2018 when mortgage rates reached 4.75% to 5%. I then put the housing market in the penalty box until the supply got below 6.5 months. I warned back then not to assume that the housing market peaked, as better times were just around the corner when we would come into the best housing demographic patch ever during the years 2020 to 2024.


We spent 2019 getting rid of the excess housing supply to end the year flat in housing starts. Now, new home sales are 41.5% year over year and 20.6% year to date.

With all this hoopla, keep in mind that this data will moderate. Also, never forget this sector of our economy is very sensitive to higher mortgage rates, so if the economy gets better, it will impact the new home sales market

 all housing data moderates to a more normal demand trend and the recent home sales especially

The housing market over time is not like toilet paper sales. It doesn’t go parabolic during a hoarding session. Monthly supply level trends are more useful than any single report to gauge the new home sales market’s strength, and it looks great now as the three-month supply trend is currently at 3.33 months.

Unlike March and April, purchase application data is holding up very well, even with the rise in cases. I 
talked about this recently on HousingWire. Today’s report from the MBA showed a 19% increase in purchase applications year over year — down from last week’s increase of 26% year over year. This will be the 27th straight week of year-over-year growth.


Some were concerned that the recent massive spike in COVID-19 cases would dampen demand like it did in March and April, but we are in a better economic spot now than we were back then. We also now believe that Americans who bought homes during the worse weeks of the pandemic didn’t have any competition and were not outbid.



The entire housing market has changed since that period. While the growth rate can cool down during this period dealing with the spike in Covid19 cases, it won’t be like what we saw earlier in the year.




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What Does “No Credit Score Mortgage” Mean (for FNMA) Policy Change As of November 15, 2025, Fannie Mae’s automated underwriting system (Desktop Underwriter, or DU) will no longer require a minimum third-party credit score. Fannie Mae Instead of relying on a fixed cutoff (like “you must have a 620 FICO”), DU will use Fannie Mae’s proprietary risk-assessment model to evaluate credit risk. Fannie Mae That model considers more than just credit score: payment history, “trended” credit data, nontraditional credit sources like rent, utilities, and so on. Fannie Mae Nontraditional Credit Allowed Fannie Mae’s Selling Guide includes rules for “nontraditional credit” — that is, credit history documented without a standard credit score. Selling Guide When a borrower truly has no credit score, lenders must document nontraditional credit history. For example, they might look at 12 months of cash flow or payment history (rent, utilities, insurance, etc.). Fannie requires borrowers without any credit score to complete homeownership education before closing. Selling Guide Why This Could Be a Good Thing Greater Access to Homeownership This change will likely help people who are “credit invisible” (i.e., they don’t have a traditional credit score) get conventional mortgages. Historically underserved groups (such as those who rent, use nontraditional credit, or have limited credit history) could benefit. More Holistic Underwriting By removing the rigid score minimum, DU can look at the whole financial picture. This means more weight on things like debt-to-income ratio, reserves, employment, and nontraditional credit. Using more data (rent history, payment trends) can be more predictive of whether someone will make mortgage payments than just a credit score. Potential Cost Benefits for Some Borrowers If done right, borrowers with limited credit but solid finances could qualify for a conventional loan (which may have more favorable terms than some other high-risk or subprime options). It may reduce the need for more expensive or risky loan products for people who don’t fit the “traditional” credit profile. Risks and Downsides Higher Risk for Lenders → Possibly Higher Cost Without a credit score floor, lenders are taking on more uncertainty. They may require larger down payments, lower loan-to-value ratios (LTVs), or more reserves to compensate. If the borrower is truly “credit invisible,” the lender’s verification burden is higher (to safely assess risk), which could make underwriting more stringent in non-score cases. Potential for Higher Interest Rates / Pricing Risks Even if a borrower qualifies, the interest rate may be higher compared to someone with a very good credit score, because the risk model may not “discount” as heavily without a high score. There could be loan-level price adjustments (or other risk-based pricing) tied to the riskiness of nontraditional credit profiles. Performance Uncertainty This is a newer underwriting paradigm for Fannie Mae, so long-term performance is less “battle-tested” at scale for certain nontraditional credit borrowers. If default rates go up for these loans, it could have negative implications for lenders or investors (or for how such loans are underwritten in the future). Lender Overlays Just because Fannie Mae has this policy doesn’t mean all lenders will be aggressive in offering no-score loans. Some may add their own stricter requirements (“overlays”) that make it harder than it sounds. You’ll need a lender that is comfortable underwriting nontraditional credit and willing to do the extra documentation. Is It a Good Thing For You Personally? It depends on your situation: Yes, it could be great if: You don’t have a traditional credit score but have a solid financial picture (stable income, low debt, documented payment history for rent/utilities). You want access to a mainstream, conventional mortgage. You have enough reserves/down payment to satisfy lender’s risk assessment. Be cautious if: Your income or cash flow is marginal, because the lender may not be comfortable with “no score + limited reserves.” You don’t have much documentation of nontraditional credit (you’ll need to show 12 months or more of payment history). You’re not working with a lender that understands or is experienced with Fannie Mae’s nontraditional credit program. My Verdict Overall, yes — this is a positive shift by Fannie Mae toward more inclusive, flexible underwriting. It’s likely to help more people who’ve been shut out of conventional mortgages. But it’s not “free risk”: borrowers still need to show financial responsibility, and lenders will underwrite carefully. If you are considering this type of mortgage (or someone offered it to you), I strongly recommend: Talking to a lender experienced with Fannie Mae’s nontraditional credit program. Didier Malagies nmls212566 DDA Mortgage nmls324329 .
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