Why did mortgage rates go up after the Fed cut Rates?

Didier Malagies • September 20, 2024


The Federal Reserve cut rates on Wednesday and mortgage rates went up! What happened? The answer lies in the bond market.


The 10-year yield and 30-year mortgage rates have been in a slow dance since 1971 and trended together. The bond market isn’t old and slow like the Fed — it moves very quickly, and for months it has been sending the 10-year yield (and mortgage rates) lower in anticipation of a series of Fed rate cuts, not just one or two.

As I’ve said for several months on the HousingWire Daily podcast, the key to understanding mortgage rates is to focus on the labor and economic data—not rate cuts. The 10-year got as low as 3.60% yesterday, but then housing starts data came out. Housing starts beat estimates, and the single-family permits data shows that they are growing again. The 10-year yield was already higher before the
Fed announcement,


The growth of housing permits is a good sign for economic expansion, and falling mortgage rates since June have helped push this data line. We would not have this conversation if mortgage rates were still in the range of 7.50%- 8% today. The bond market got ahead of the Fed, pushing bond yields and mortgage rates lower—which has already made a difference.


So what now? Today’s jobless claims data came in better than expected, sending yields higher again, which looks perfectly normal. The bond market is so far ahead of the Fed that it can sit and watch to see how the economic data trends. If housing starts, industrial production, and jobless claims were worse than expected, we would have a different discussion today. However, that’s not the case — the economic data, even retail sales this week, came in as a beat.



So, if you’re confused about why rates went up, remember that the bond market gets ahead of the Fed. And listen to the podcast — we’ve been discussing this for months. The labor market has been softer with the data’s internals since the end of 2023, and the Fed is only now worried about a risk to labor. This means they need to play catch up to the market pricing. The 10-year yield is currently at 3.74%, up from yesterday’s lows and slightly higher from the close. For mortgage rates to go lower, we need to see three things:


1. Mortgage spreads getting better
2. Economic and labor data getting softer
3. The Fed getting more dovish with their statements, showing a willingness to do more to help the economy stay out of recession

Until then, the last 24 hours make a lot of sense to me, given the economic data and where the bond market was trading before the housing starts data came out.




Have A Question?

Use the form below and we will give your our expert answers!

Reverse Mortgage Ask A Question


Start Your Loan with DDA today
Your local Mortgage Broker

Mortgage Broker Largo
See our Reviews

Looking for more details? Listen to our extended podcast! 

Check out our other helpful videos to learn more about credit and residential mortgages.

By Didier Malagies December 11, 2025
If the **Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 0.25% and simultaneously restarts a form of quantitative easing (QE) by buying about $40 billion per month of securities, the overall monetary policy stance becomes very accommodative. Here’s what that generally means for interest rates and the broader economy: 📉 1. Short-Term Interest Rates The Fed’s benchmark rate (federal funds rate) directly sets the cost of overnight borrowing between banks. A 0.25% cut lowers that rate, which usually leads to lower short-term borrowing costs throughout the economy — for example on credit cards, variable-rate loans, and some business financing. Yahoo Finance +1 In most markets, short-term yields fall first, because they track the federal funds rate most closely. Reuters 📉 2. Long-Term Interest Rates Purchasing bonds (QE) puts downward pressure on long-term yields. When the Fed buys large amounts of Treasury bills or bonds, it increases demand for them, pushing prices up and yields down. SIEPR This tends to lower mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and yields on long-dated government bonds, though not always as quickly or as much as short-term rates. Bankrate 🤝 3. Combined Effect Rate cuts + QE = dual easing. Rate cuts reduce the cost of short-term credit, and QE often helps bring down long-term rates too. Together, they usually flatten the yield curve (short and long rates both lower). SIEPR Lower rates overall tend to stimulate spending by households and investment by businesses because borrowing is cheaper. Cleveland Federal Reserve 💡 4. Market and Economic Responses Financial markets often interpret such easing as a cue that the Fed wants to support the economy. Stocks may rise and bond yields may fall. Reuters However, if inflation is already above target (as it has been), this accommodative stance could keep long-term inflation elevated or slow the pace of inflation decline. That’s one reason why Fed policymakers are sometimes divided over aggressive easing. Reuters 🔁 5. What This Doesn’t Mean The Fed buying $40 billion in bills right now may technically be labeled something like “reserve management purchases,” and some market analysts argue this may not be classic QE. But whether it’s traditional QE or not, the effect on liquidity and longer-term rates is similar: more Fed demand for government paper equals lower yields. Reuters In simple terms: ✅ Short-term rates will be lower because of the rate cut. ✅ Long-term rates are likely to decline too if the asset purchases are sustained. ➡️ Overall borrowing costs fall across the economy, boosting credit, investment, and spending. ⚠️ But this also risks higher inflation if demand strengthens too much while supply remains constrained. tune in and learn https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
By Didier Malagies December 9, 2025
How will AI reshape the mortgage industry
By Didier Malagies December 8, 2025
This is a subtitle for your new post
Show More