Blog Layout

New home sales beat estimates, but what does it mean? Homebuilders have their own playbook

DDA Mortgage • June 27, 2022


New home sales beat the headline estimates and had positive revisions. How on earth did that happen? Not only that, the monthly supply data was revised lower from nine months to 8.3 months for the previous report. Let me tell you, we had a lot of shocked faces in economic land this morning.


First, we must never forget that the new home sales reports can be very wild month to month and that positive or negative revisions are widespread. However, this report did have positive revisions to go with it, so it’s not just a headline beat.


Here is the honest truth about the new home sales data: We came off the weakest new home sales recovery ever in the previous expansion. We never had a housing bubble credit boom, so we can’t have a housing bubble credit boom-bust. This means sales were never really working from a massively elevated level, pushed by exotic loan debt structures loans. This is a critical thing to remember going out the next few years. 


From Census: New Home Sales Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 696,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.7 percent (±18.9 percent)* above the revised April rate of 629,000, but is 5.9 percent (±22.0 percent)* below the May 2021 estimate of 740,000.

As you can see below, new home sales are still below the 2000 recession level, and we just had a significant spike in mortgage rates too. These monthly reports can be very wild, and I anticipate big swings in the reports until things calm down with mortgage rates.

From Census: Sales Price The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2022 was $449,000. The average sales price was $511,400.


We can see below, pricing got pretty crazy after 2020. The builders had pricing power and used it well to make their margins look great, even with all the added costs to build their homes. The market has changed with rates so much higher, but for the most part, the builders are managing the recent weakness in sales as best they can. Don’t be fooled by this report, they know what they’re dealing with, now that mortgage rates are above 6%. 

Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 444,000. This represents a supply of 7.7 months at the current sales rate.


The monthly supply data for new homes often get mixed up with the existing home sales market. People go to the Fred website, type in the monthly supply, and believe it’s the existing home sales marketplace. I deal with people who tell me the monthly supply is 7.7 months. They think there is no housing shortage.

So, for Twitter, I had to create a rule.


We have two rules

1. We don’t talk about Fight Club
2. We don’t say the new home sales market supply is the existing home sales market.

The existing home sales market monthly supply is running at 2.6 months.


Five months of the supply are homes in construction. That is a high level, and two months of the supply hasn’t started construction yet, and a whopping 0.68 months are completed homes. Yes, I went below one month there. As someone who wants to see more inventory, not the best data lines, but we are working our way to finishing those homes.


My rule of thumb for anticipating builder behavior is based on the three-month average of supply:

  • When supply is 4.3 months, and below, this is an excellent market for the builders.
  • When supply is 4.4 to 6.4 months, this is an OK market for the builders. They will build as long as new home sales are growing.
  • The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 months and above.


The builder’s confidence has fallen noticeably as their business model is at risk with higher rates. Today’s new home sales report doesn’t change the fact that the builders are mindful of what they’re dealing with. This is the reason why their confidence levels have fallen.

From NAHB:


I recently raised my fifth recession red flag because of this drop in their confidence, sales, and housing permits and this report doesn’t change that. Again, this cycle is much different than the run-up in 2002-2005; hopefully, you can see that with the data I have provided. I have a running joke with my housing-crash friends that they keep screaming 2008 but purchase application data today is already below 2008 levels. Awkward!


Overall, the new homes sales was a shocking report, not only as a headline beat, but with positive revisions on sales and monthly supply data falling with revisions on monthly supply data. I can’t recall a more shocking new home sales report than this.


With that said, these reports are very wild monthly and can be all over the place over the next 12 months. This is why revisions are crucial, and until builder confidence changes course, I would not put too much weight on this one report. However, I would focus on the fact that new home sales are trending back at the lows we saw in 2018, the last time rates rose. Not exactly a booming period of sales. In fact, just for some context, new home sales today are back to 1996 levels.



There is a benefit of not having a credit boom in housing this time — that means you can’t have a significant housing bust. This means during the downturns, the builders can manage their supply better. I would add this final note for next year. As the total inventory for existing homes grows, the builders will be mindful of this, which is one other reason why I believe they will slow down construction. The existing home sales market is their biggest competitor, and they have benefited from the inventory in that sector falling to all-time lows. If we get the total existing inventory back toward 2 million that benefit is gone. It’s currently at 1.16 million.



Have A Question?

Use the form below and we will give your our expert answers!

Reverse Mortgage Ask A Question


Start Your Loan with DDA today
Your local Mortgage Broker

Mortgage Broker Largo
See our Reviews

Looking for more details? Listen to our extended podcast! 

Check out our other helpful videos to learn more about credit and residential mortgages.

By Didier Malagies December 20, 2024
Older homeowners have an overwhelming preference to age in place , but these circumstances can also come with unique challenges. Feelings of isolation and loneliness rank highly among these issues, but a recent study suggests that aging in place with a pet can make a big difference. The study, highlighted in Psychology Today , also noted that having pets in later life can come with its own set of unique challenges , according to Ann Toohey, one of the authors of the study who is based at the University of Calgary. The study followed initial interviews conducted in 2015 by examining how owning a pet impacted the lives of older people aging in place in their homes. According to the study, several takeaways emerged, including that the companionship of a pet makes a difference in their owners’ lives. While the companionship provided is understandably different from what is offered by another person, it also came with other potential social benefits for the seniors who owned pets. “As it happened, most of the people in this study were single,” the report in Psychology Today noted. “Having a dog, in particular, was a good way to get to know other people, so pets could also increase the size of participants’ social networks.” Finding pet-friendly housing can be an issue, according to the respondents. While the subjects were committed to keeping their pets, the housing challenges that pets can present made for a unique challenge. “Because people did not want to give up their pets, they sometimes had to accept housing that was less than ideal or even not safe due to other people in the home,” the report explained. Pets can also have other impacts on an older person’s mental well being, the study found, particularly if an older pet owner endured certain health-related challenges. “As people got older, they sometimes had difficult circumstances to deal with, such as serious issues with their own health,” the report said. “Caring for their pet provided meaning through these hard times, and a sense of things continuing to be the same, at least in some regards. In this way, the pet helped them to cope with the challenges.” Toohey added that while the seniors profiled in the study were generally committed to keeping their pets, the potential housing challenges that pet ownership can present for some older people seeking housing need to be addressed. There is a lot of potential for what she calls “companion animal relationships” to promote health in “many ways that are salient to aging.” These include spurring physical activity by walking a pet, companionship and potential involvement in pet-centric social activities with other pet owners. But certain challenges are also a factor, including the cost of pet supplies, a lack of affordable support if a pet owner becomes ill, and the need for veterinary care. There are also housing-related challenges, which could include “the prevalence of no pet rules to size restrictions to extra fees,” she said. In terms of housing policies tied to aging in place, these barriers could have the most impact, according to the report. “Greater availability of seniors’ housing that allows pets would be very beneficial and would make it easier for people to age in place with their pet,” the report said. “This would benefit those who aren’t seniors too, as more pet-friendly housing would help a wide range of people.”  This is on top of other well-documented challenges older people can face when trying to age in place. These include the high cost of long-term care , a need to create more walkable communities and housing supply illus trates that impact prospective homebuyers of all ages.
By Didier Malagies December 17, 2024
Older homeowners have an overwhelming preference to age in place , but these circumstances can also come with unique challenges. Feelings of isolation and loneliness rank highly among these issues, but a recent study suggests that aging in place with a pet can make a big difference. The study, highlighted in Psychology Today , also noted that having pets in later life can come with its own set of unique challenges , according to Ann Toohey, one of the authors of the study who is based at the University of Calgary. The study followed initial interviews conducted in 2015 by examining how owning a pet impacted the lives of older people aging in place in their homes. According to the study, several takeaways emerged, including that the companionship of a pet makes a difference in their owners’ lives. While the companionship provided is understandably different from what is offered by another person, it also came with other potential social benefits for the seniors who owned pets. “As it happened, most of the people in this study were single,” the report in Psychology Today noted. “Having a dog, in particular, was a good way to get to know other people, so pets could also increase the size of participants’ social networks.” Finding pet-friendly housing can be an issue, according to the respondents. While the subjects were committed to keeping their pets, the housing challenges that pets can present made for a unique challenge. “Because people did not want to give up their pets, they sometimes had to accept housing that was less than ideal or even not safe due to other people in the home,” the report explained. Pets can also have other impacts on an older person’s mental well being, the study found, particularly if an older pet owner endured certain health-related challenges. “As people got older, they sometimes had difficult circumstances to deal with, such as serious issues with their own health,” the report said. “Caring for their pet provided meaning through these hard times, and a sense of things continuing to be the same, at least in some regards. In this way, the pet helped them to cope with the challenges.” Toohey added that while the seniors profiled in the study were generally committed to keeping their pets, the potential housing challenges that pet ownership can present for some older people seeking housing need to be addressed. There is a lot of potential for what she calls “companion animal relationships” to promote health in “many ways that are salient to aging.” These include spurring physical activity by walking a pet, companionship and potential involvement in pet-centric social activities with other pet owners. But certain challenges are also a factor, including the cost of pet supplies, a lack of affordable support if a pet owner becomes ill, and the need for veterinary care. There are also housing-related challenges, which could include “the prevalence of no pet rules to size restrictions to extra fees,” she said. In terms of housing policies tied to aging in place, these barriers could have the most impact, according to the report. “Greater availability of seniors’ housing that allows pets would be very beneficial and would make it easier for people to age in place with their pet,” the report said. “This would benefit those who aren’t seniors too, as more pet-friendly housing would help a wide range of people.”  This is on top of other well-documented challenges older people can face when trying to age in place. These include the high cost of long-term care , a need to create more walkable communities and housing supply illus trates that impact prospective homebuyers of all ages.
By Didier Malagies December 16, 2024
A condo questionnaire is a critical document that lenders use during the mortgage approval process for condominium purchases. It provides detailed information about the condo complex's financial health, rules, regulations, and overall condition. Problems with the condo questionnaire can create delays or complications during the closing process. Here are some common issues that might cause problems: 1. Financial Health Concerns High percentage of owner-occupancy: Many lenders require that at least 50% (or more) of the units in the complex be owner-occupied rather than rented. If a condo complex has too many renters, it could impact the lender’s willingness to approve a loan. Reserve fund issues: Lenders typically want to see that the condo association has sufficient funds in its reserve account for future maintenance and emergencies. If the reserve fund is too low or non-existent, it raises concerns about the financial stability of the association, leading to potential loan rejection. Delinquencies in condo fees: A high rate of delinquencies in the condo association fees can signal financial instability, which lenders may view as a risk. This can delay or halt the approval process. 2. Insurance Coverage Problems Lack of adequate insurance: Lenders require that the condo association carries specific types of insurance, including property insurance and liability coverage. If the condo association's insurance policy doesn’t meet the lender's criteria, the loan may be delayed or denied. Insufficient flood insurance: If the condo is in a flood zone, the association is required to have flood insurance. A deficiency in this area can cause significant issues with closing. 3. Pending or Recent Litigation Ongoing lawsuits: If the condo association is involved in a lawsuit (e.g., against contractors, residents, or local authorities), it can be a red flag for lenders. Lawsuits can create financial and legal uncertainty, so lenders may hesitate to approve a loan until the matter is resolved. History of litigation: Even if the condo association is not currently involved in litigation, a history of legal problems could still concern lenders and complicate the approval process. 4. Non-Compliance with Condominium Guidelines Failure to meet FHA/VA guidelines: Some buyers are using FHA or VA loans, which have specific guidelines regarding condo developments. If the condo does not meet these criteria (for example, not having enough unit owners, or a commercial component taking up too much space), it can prevent the buyer from securing the loan. Non-compliant rules or by-laws: If the condo association's rules or by-laws are outdated or do not comply with lender requirements (such as restrictions on renting out units), it can create issues. 5. Discrepancies or Incomplete Information Incomplete or missing information: If the condo questionnaire is not fully completed or there is missing information about the financials or maintenance issues, lenders may hold up the approval process. Incorrect or inconsistent data: Discrepancies between the information provided in the questionnaire and the condo association’s financial statements can raise red flags, requiring additional clarification or investigation. 6. Excessive Commercial Units or Mixed-Use Properties High commercial occupancy: If a condo development has a high percentage of commercial space or mixed-use properties (residential and commercial), lenders might view this as risky. Lenders prefer predominantly residential complexes since they have a lower risk profile. 7. Special Assessments Upcoming or recent special assessments: If the condo association has recently passed a special assessment (a fee charged to condo owners for unexpected repairs or improvements) or plans to do so in the near future, it can lead to concerns about the financial health of the complex and may affect the lender's decision to approve the loan. 8. Age of the Building Older buildings with deferred maintenance: Lenders might be cautious about approving loans for condos in older buildings that have not been well-maintained. They may require detailed maintenance records or a building inspection to ensure that the property is in good condition. Conclusion Issues with the condo questionnaire that could cause problems during closing typically revolve around the financial stability, legal status, and physical condition of the condo association and its property. It's important for both the buyer and the seller to address these issues early in the process by working with the condo association to provide accurate, complete, and compliant documentation to the lender. By messaging ChatGPT, you agree to our Terms and have read our Privacy Policy. Don't share sensitive info. Chats may be reviewed and used to train our models. Learn more tune in and learn at https://www.ddamortgage.com/blog didier malagies nmls#212566 dda mortgage nmls#324329
Show More
Share by: