New home sales beat estimates, but what does it mean? Homebuilders have their own playbook

DDA Mortgage • June 27, 2022


New home sales beat the headline estimates and had positive revisions. How on earth did that happen? Not only that, the monthly supply data was revised lower from nine months to 8.3 months for the previous report. Let me tell you, we had a lot of shocked faces in economic land this morning.


First, we must never forget that the new home sales reports can be very wild month to month and that positive or negative revisions are widespread. However, this report did have positive revisions to go with it, so it’s not just a headline beat.


Here is the honest truth about the new home sales data: We came off the weakest new home sales recovery ever in the previous expansion. We never had a housing bubble credit boom, so we can’t have a housing bubble credit boom-bust. This means sales were never really working from a massively elevated level, pushed by exotic loan debt structures loans. This is a critical thing to remember going out the next few years. 


From Census: New Home Sales Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 696,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.7 percent (±18.9 percent)* above the revised April rate of 629,000, but is 5.9 percent (±22.0 percent)* below the May 2021 estimate of 740,000.

As you can see below, new home sales are still below the 2000 recession level, and we just had a significant spike in mortgage rates too. These monthly reports can be very wild, and I anticipate big swings in the reports until things calm down with mortgage rates.

From Census: Sales Price The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2022 was $449,000. The average sales price was $511,400.


We can see below, pricing got pretty crazy after 2020. The builders had pricing power and used it well to make their margins look great, even with all the added costs to build their homes. The market has changed with rates so much higher, but for the most part, the builders are managing the recent weakness in sales as best they can. Don’t be fooled by this report, they know what they’re dealing with, now that mortgage rates are above 6%. 

Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 444,000. This represents a supply of 7.7 months at the current sales rate.


The monthly supply data for new homes often get mixed up with the existing home sales market. People go to the Fred website, type in the monthly supply, and believe it’s the existing home sales marketplace. I deal with people who tell me the monthly supply is 7.7 months. They think there is no housing shortage.

So, for Twitter, I had to create a rule.


We have two rules

1. We don’t talk about Fight Club
2. We don’t say the new home sales market supply is the existing home sales market.

The existing home sales market monthly supply is running at 2.6 months.


Five months of the supply are homes in construction. That is a high level, and two months of the supply hasn’t started construction yet, and a whopping 0.68 months are completed homes. Yes, I went below one month there. As someone who wants to see more inventory, not the best data lines, but we are working our way to finishing those homes.


My rule of thumb for anticipating builder behavior is based on the three-month average of supply:

  • When supply is 4.3 months, and below, this is an excellent market for the builders.
  • When supply is 4.4 to 6.4 months, this is an OK market for the builders. They will build as long as new home sales are growing.
  • The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 months and above.


The builder’s confidence has fallen noticeably as their business model is at risk with higher rates. Today’s new home sales report doesn’t change the fact that the builders are mindful of what they’re dealing with. This is the reason why their confidence levels have fallen.

From NAHB:


I recently raised my fifth recession red flag because of this drop in their confidence, sales, and housing permits and this report doesn’t change that. Again, this cycle is much different than the run-up in 2002-2005; hopefully, you can see that with the data I have provided. I have a running joke with my housing-crash friends that they keep screaming 2008 but purchase application data today is already below 2008 levels. Awkward!


Overall, the new homes sales was a shocking report, not only as a headline beat, but with positive revisions on sales and monthly supply data falling with revisions on monthly supply data. I can’t recall a more shocking new home sales report than this.


With that said, these reports are very wild monthly and can be all over the place over the next 12 months. This is why revisions are crucial, and until builder confidence changes course, I would not put too much weight on this one report. However, I would focus on the fact that new home sales are trending back at the lows we saw in 2018, the last time rates rose. Not exactly a booming period of sales. In fact, just for some context, new home sales today are back to 1996 levels.



There is a benefit of not having a credit boom in housing this time — that means you can’t have a significant housing bust. This means during the downturns, the builders can manage their supply better. I would add this final note for next year. As the total inventory for existing homes grows, the builders will be mindful of this, which is one other reason why I believe they will slow down construction. The existing home sales market is their biggest competitor, and they have benefited from the inventory in that sector falling to all-time lows. If we get the total existing inventory back toward 2 million that benefit is gone. It’s currently at 1.16 million.



Have A Question?

Use the form below and we will give your our expert answers!

Reverse Mortgage Ask A Question


Start Your Loan with DDA today
Your local Mortgage Broker

Mortgage Broker Largo
See our Reviews

Looking for more details? Listen to our extended podcast! 

Check out our other helpful videos to learn more about credit and residential mortgages.

By DDA Mortage February 12, 2026
Navigating rate & term refinancing in Florida's changing market. Learn if paying points makes sense and how to calculate your true savings with DDA Mortgage.
By DDA Mortage February 9, 2026
Discover how inflation impacts seniors on fixed incomes and explore solutions like reverse mortgages to ease financial stress after age 62.
By Didier Malagies February 3, 2026
Is Refinancing Right for You? Unlocking Cash & Financial Freedom Feeling squeezed? Juggling multiple debts with varying interest rates? Dreaming of that kitchen remodel you've been putting off? Or maybe you just need a little extra breathing room in your monthly budget? You're not alone. Many homeowners find themselves in situations where they need access to cash, and for a significant portion of them, the answer is refinancing their mortgage. In fact, last year, a whopping 40% of all mortgage activity was refinances! But what exactly is driving this trend, and could refinancing be the right move for you ? Refinancing to Unlock Cash: Home Improvements, Debt Consolidation, and More One of the primary drivers behind the refinance boom is the desire to tap into home equity. Your home is likely your largest asset, and as you pay down your mortgage and your property value increases, you build equity. A cash-out refinance allows you to borrow against that equity, receiving the difference in cash at closing. Home Renovations and Upgrades Imagine finally getting that dream kitchen! Or adding a much-needed bathroom. Home improvements not only enhance your living space, but they can also significantly increase your home's value. Instead of relying on high-interest credit cards or personal loans, a cash-out refinance provides a more affordable way to finance these projects. Debt Consolidation: Streamline Your Finances Are you overwhelmed by multiple credit card bills, student loans, or other high-interest debts? A cash-out refinance can be a powerful tool for debt consolidation. By using the cash from your refinance to pay off these debts, you can simplify your finances, potentially lower your overall interest rate, and reduce your monthly payments. This can free up cash flow and make it easier to manage your finances. Unexpected Expenses and Opportunities Life throws curveballs. Unexpected medical bills, job loss, or even a fantastic investment opportunity can create a need for immediate cash. A cash-out refinance can provide a financial safety net, allowing you to address these situations without resorting to high-interest options. Beyond Lower Rates: Other Reasons to Refinance While a lower interest rate is often the primary motivation for refinancing, it's important to recognize that it's not the only reason homeowners choose to refinance. Many factors contribute to the decision, and sometimes, a lower rate isn't even the main goal. Switching Loan Types: From ARM to Fixed-Rate Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) can be attractive with their initially lower interest rates. However, as the name suggests, the rate can adjust over time, potentially leading to higher monthly payments. Refinancing from an ARM to a fixed-rate mortgage provides peace of mind by locking in a stable interest rate for the life of the loan. This can be especially appealing in a rising interest rate environment. Shortening Your Loan Term Refinancing to a shorter loan term, such as from a 30-year mortgage to a 15-year mortgage, can save you a significant amount of money in interest over the life of the loan. While your monthly payments will likely be higher, you'll pay off your mortgage much faster and build equity more quickly. This is a great option for homeowners who are financially secure and want to accelerate their path to homeownership. Removing Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) If you initially put down less than 20% when you purchased your home, you're likely paying private mortgage insurance (PMI). PMI protects the lender in case you default on your loan. However, once you've built up enough equity in your home (typically 20%), you can request to have PMI removed. Refinancing can be a way to get a new appraisal and demonstrate that you've reached the required equity threshold, allowing you to eliminate this extra monthly expense. You can reach out to us through our contact page to learn more about your specific scenario. The Rise of Cash-Out Refinancing: A 2023 Trend As we mentioned earlier, a substantial portion of 2023 refinance volume was cash-out refinancing. This indicates a shift in homeowner priorities. While securing lower interest rates remains important, the need for accessing equity for various financial needs is becoming increasingly prevalent. Economic Factors Influencing Refinance Decisions Several economic factors contribute to the popularity of cash-out refinancing. Rising home values have created more equity for homeowners to tap into. Additionally, inflation and rising costs of living are putting pressure on household budgets, making debt consolidation and access to cash more appealing. Economic uncertainly may lead homeowners to consolidate their debts and protect against future economic shock. Weighing the Pros and Cons: Is Cash-Out Refinancing Right for You? While cash-out refinancing can be a valuable tool, it's crucial to carefully consider the pros and cons before making a decision. On the positive side, it can provide access to cash for important needs, consolidate debt, and potentially lower your overall interest rate. However, it also means taking on a larger mortgage, potentially extending your loan term, and paying closing costs. A recent [Housing Wire article]( "") discussed the importance of working with an expert to determine what option is best for each homeowner. Important Considerations Before You Refinance Assess Your Financial Situation: Carefully evaluate your current debt obligations, income, and expenses. Compare Interest Rates and Fees: Shop around for the best refinance rates and terms. Don't just focus on the interest rate; consider all associated fees. Calculate the Break-Even Point: Determine how long it will take to recoup the closing costs associated with refinancing. Understand the Tax Implications: Consult with a tax advisor to understand any potential tax implications of refinancing. Does Refinancing Make Sense to Consolidate Debt? Let's Talk! Refinancing can be a powerful tool for achieving your financial goals, whether it's consolidating debt, funding home improvements, or simply gaining more financial flexibility. But it's not a one-size-fits-all solution. That's why it's essential to work with a trusted mortgage professional who can assess your individual needs and help you determine if refinancing is the right choice for you. At DDA Mortgage, we're committed to providing personalized guidance and helping you navigate the complexities of the mortgage process. If you're considering refinancing, we encourage you to contact us today for a free consultation. Let us help you explore your options and find the best solution for your unique situation. Check out our Refinancing page to learn more, and then reach out to one of our team members! Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any financial decisions. Interest rates and loan terms are subject to change without notice.
Show More