New home sales beat estimates, but what does it mean? Homebuilders have their own playbook

DDA Mortgage • June 27, 2022


New home sales beat the headline estimates and had positive revisions. How on earth did that happen? Not only that, the monthly supply data was revised lower from nine months to 8.3 months for the previous report. Let me tell you, we had a lot of shocked faces in economic land this morning.


First, we must never forget that the new home sales reports can be very wild month to month and that positive or negative revisions are widespread. However, this report did have positive revisions to go with it, so it’s not just a headline beat.


Here is the honest truth about the new home sales data: We came off the weakest new home sales recovery ever in the previous expansion. We never had a housing bubble credit boom, so we can’t have a housing bubble credit boom-bust. This means sales were never really working from a massively elevated level, pushed by exotic loan debt structures loans. This is a critical thing to remember going out the next few years. 


From Census: New Home Sales Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 696,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.7 percent (±18.9 percent)* above the revised April rate of 629,000, but is 5.9 percent (±22.0 percent)* below the May 2021 estimate of 740,000.

As you can see below, new home sales are still below the 2000 recession level, and we just had a significant spike in mortgage rates too. These monthly reports can be very wild, and I anticipate big swings in the reports until things calm down with mortgage rates.

From Census: Sales Price The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2022 was $449,000. The average sales price was $511,400.


We can see below, pricing got pretty crazy after 2020. The builders had pricing power and used it well to make their margins look great, even with all the added costs to build their homes. The market has changed with rates so much higher, but for the most part, the builders are managing the recent weakness in sales as best they can. Don’t be fooled by this report, they know what they’re dealing with, now that mortgage rates are above 6%. 

Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 444,000. This represents a supply of 7.7 months at the current sales rate.


The monthly supply data for new homes often get mixed up with the existing home sales market. People go to the Fred website, type in the monthly supply, and believe it’s the existing home sales marketplace. I deal with people who tell me the monthly supply is 7.7 months. They think there is no housing shortage.

So, for Twitter, I had to create a rule.


We have two rules

1. We don’t talk about Fight Club
2. We don’t say the new home sales market supply is the existing home sales market.

The existing home sales market monthly supply is running at 2.6 months.


Five months of the supply are homes in construction. That is a high level, and two months of the supply hasn’t started construction yet, and a whopping 0.68 months are completed homes. Yes, I went below one month there. As someone who wants to see more inventory, not the best data lines, but we are working our way to finishing those homes.


My rule of thumb for anticipating builder behavior is based on the three-month average of supply:

  • When supply is 4.3 months, and below, this is an excellent market for the builders.
  • When supply is 4.4 to 6.4 months, this is an OK market for the builders. They will build as long as new home sales are growing.
  • The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 months and above.


The builder’s confidence has fallen noticeably as their business model is at risk with higher rates. Today’s new home sales report doesn’t change the fact that the builders are mindful of what they’re dealing with. This is the reason why their confidence levels have fallen.

From NAHB:


I recently raised my fifth recession red flag because of this drop in their confidence, sales, and housing permits and this report doesn’t change that. Again, this cycle is much different than the run-up in 2002-2005; hopefully, you can see that with the data I have provided. I have a running joke with my housing-crash friends that they keep screaming 2008 but purchase application data today is already below 2008 levels. Awkward!


Overall, the new homes sales was a shocking report, not only as a headline beat, but with positive revisions on sales and monthly supply data falling with revisions on monthly supply data. I can’t recall a more shocking new home sales report than this.


With that said, these reports are very wild monthly and can be all over the place over the next 12 months. This is why revisions are crucial, and until builder confidence changes course, I would not put too much weight on this one report. However, I would focus on the fact that new home sales are trending back at the lows we saw in 2018, the last time rates rose. Not exactly a booming period of sales. In fact, just for some context, new home sales today are back to 1996 levels.



There is a benefit of not having a credit boom in housing this time — that means you can’t have a significant housing bust. This means during the downturns, the builders can manage their supply better. I would add this final note for next year. As the total inventory for existing homes grows, the builders will be mindful of this, which is one other reason why I believe they will slow down construction. The existing home sales market is their biggest competitor, and they have benefited from the inventory in that sector falling to all-time lows. If we get the total existing inventory back toward 2 million that benefit is gone. It’s currently at 1.16 million.



Have A Question?

Use the form below and we will give your our expert answers!

Reverse Mortgage Ask A Question


Start Your Loan with DDA today
Your local Mortgage Broker

Mortgage Broker Largo
See our Reviews

Looking for more details? Listen to our extended podcast! 

Check out our other helpful videos to learn more about credit and residential mortgages.

By Didier Malagies November 18, 2025
This is a subtitle for your new post
By Didier Malagies November 17, 2025
This is a subtitle for your new post
By Didier Malagies November 17, 2025
What Does “No Credit Score Mortgage” Mean (for FNMA) Policy Change As of November 15, 2025, Fannie Mae’s automated underwriting system (Desktop Underwriter, or DU) will no longer require a minimum third-party credit score. Fannie Mae Instead of relying on a fixed cutoff (like “you must have a 620 FICO”), DU will use Fannie Mae’s proprietary risk-assessment model to evaluate credit risk. Fannie Mae That model considers more than just credit score: payment history, “trended” credit data, nontraditional credit sources like rent, utilities, and so on. Fannie Mae Nontraditional Credit Allowed Fannie Mae’s Selling Guide includes rules for “nontraditional credit” — that is, credit history documented without a standard credit score. Selling Guide When a borrower truly has no credit score, lenders must document nontraditional credit history. For example, they might look at 12 months of cash flow or payment history (rent, utilities, insurance, etc.). Fannie requires borrowers without any credit score to complete homeownership education before closing. Selling Guide Why This Could Be a Good Thing Greater Access to Homeownership This change will likely help people who are “credit invisible” (i.e., they don’t have a traditional credit score) get conventional mortgages. Historically underserved groups (such as those who rent, use nontraditional credit, or have limited credit history) could benefit. More Holistic Underwriting By removing the rigid score minimum, DU can look at the whole financial picture. This means more weight on things like debt-to-income ratio, reserves, employment, and nontraditional credit. Using more data (rent history, payment trends) can be more predictive of whether someone will make mortgage payments than just a credit score. Potential Cost Benefits for Some Borrowers If done right, borrowers with limited credit but solid finances could qualify for a conventional loan (which may have more favorable terms than some other high-risk or subprime options). It may reduce the need for more expensive or risky loan products for people who don’t fit the “traditional” credit profile. Risks and Downsides Higher Risk for Lenders → Possibly Higher Cost Without a credit score floor, lenders are taking on more uncertainty. They may require larger down payments, lower loan-to-value ratios (LTVs), or more reserves to compensate. If the borrower is truly “credit invisible,” the lender’s verification burden is higher (to safely assess risk), which could make underwriting more stringent in non-score cases. Potential for Higher Interest Rates / Pricing Risks Even if a borrower qualifies, the interest rate may be higher compared to someone with a very good credit score, because the risk model may not “discount” as heavily without a high score. There could be loan-level price adjustments (or other risk-based pricing) tied to the riskiness of nontraditional credit profiles. Performance Uncertainty This is a newer underwriting paradigm for Fannie Mae, so long-term performance is less “battle-tested” at scale for certain nontraditional credit borrowers. If default rates go up for these loans, it could have negative implications for lenders or investors (or for how such loans are underwritten in the future). Lender Overlays Just because Fannie Mae has this policy doesn’t mean all lenders will be aggressive in offering no-score loans. Some may add their own stricter requirements (“overlays”) that make it harder than it sounds. You’ll need a lender that is comfortable underwriting nontraditional credit and willing to do the extra documentation. Is It a Good Thing For You Personally? It depends on your situation: Yes, it could be great if: You don’t have a traditional credit score but have a solid financial picture (stable income, low debt, documented payment history for rent/utilities). You want access to a mainstream, conventional mortgage. You have enough reserves/down payment to satisfy lender’s risk assessment. Be cautious if: Your income or cash flow is marginal, because the lender may not be comfortable with “no score + limited reserves.” You don’t have much documentation of nontraditional credit (you’ll need to show 12 months or more of payment history). You’re not working with a lender that understands or is experienced with Fannie Mae’s nontraditional credit program. My Verdict Overall, yes — this is a positive shift by Fannie Mae toward more inclusive, flexible underwriting. It’s likely to help more people who’ve been shut out of conventional mortgages. But it’s not “free risk”: borrowers still need to show financial responsibility, and lenders will underwrite carefully. If you are considering this type of mortgage (or someone offered it to you), I strongly recommend: Talking to a lender experienced with Fannie Mae’s nontraditional credit program. Didier Malagies nmls212566 DDA Mortgage nmls324329 .
Show More