When will it be a good time to refinance?

DDA Mortgage • June 27, 2022

Now is not the best time to refinance with rates going up.


However, if you need cash to pay off high-interest adjustable debt that is climbing or if you want to take on a home project because of the increased equity of your home, cash-out refinancing is still a good option. Remember, you can always refinance again, when the rates are lower.


If you don't need the money, I suggest waiting until rates come back down. Here's why.


I've been in the mortgage industry for over 35 years. I've seen this cycle many times. The Fed is raising rates. Eventually, this will slow down the economy and lead to a recession. The Fed will lower rates to recover from the recession. Once this happens, it will be a good time to refinance, cash-out, pay down debt, and take on home projects.


When rates drop, it will be a great opportunity to take advantage of all that equity you've built up.


Rate drops are hard to predict for several reasons, but the cycle is consistent. Mortgage rates rise and fall based on a number of factors like:


Changes In The Bond Market Affect Mortgage Interest Rates

The bond market is a huge part of the mortgage rate equation. And that's because bonds are what most lenders use to fund their mortgages. When interest rates rise in the bond market, lenders have to pay more for their funds, which means they can't afford to offer as many mortgages at a lower rate as they could before. That makes it more expensive for borrowers to get a loan.


Changes In The Secured Overnight Finance Rate

Another factor that can affect mortgage rates is the Secured Overnight Finance Rate (SOFR). It's the rate banks charge each other overnight for short-term loans. The Federal Reserve sets this rate every morning and adjusts it throughout the day based on how well banks are doing financially. When SOFR rises or falls, so do other rates like LIBOR and T-bill yields — all of which impact mortgage rates.


The Constant Maturity Treasury Rate Affects Rates

This is another important factor that can affect your mortgage rate: The Constant Maturity Treasury Rate (CMT) is a benchmark used by lenders to determine how much interest they'll pay on bonds they buy from investors — such as those issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. When CMT rises or falls, so does your mortgage rate.


The Health Of The Economy Affects Rates

When the economy is strong and growing, it's likely that mortgage rates will decrease as well. This is because lenders are more willing to lend money when they're confident that they'll be repaid. In addition, homebuyers tend to have more job security when jobs are plentiful and salaries increase, so their ability to repay their loans is better than if they were unemployed or underemployed.


The Health Of The Economy Affects Mortgage Rates

When the economy is strong and growing, it's likely that mortgage rates will decrease as well. This is because lenders are more willing to lend money when they're confident that they'll be repaid. In addition, homebuyers tend to have more job security when jobs are plentiful and salaries increase, so their ability to repay their loans is better than if they were unemployed or underemployed.


Inflation Affects Mortgage Rates

Inflation is another factor that affects mortgage rates. Higher inflation leads to higher interest rates because lenders know that they will be paid back with less buying power than they lent if inflation continues at its current pace.


The term structure of interest rates is another factor that affects mortgage rates. This refers to the difference between short-term interest rates such as three-month Treasury bills and long-term ones such as 30-year mortgages. The yield curve refers specifically to this spread between short-term and long-term yields on government bonds or home loans. When investors want higher returns from longer maturities, they usually require a higher yield on those investments. When all this will happen is hard to predict for several reasons, but the cycle is consistent.


I'm Didier at DDA mortgage. I always want to give you options, so you can get the best loan with the best terms to fit your situation.


If you have any questions about refinancing your home, call DDA Mortgage at (727) 784-5555, or use the form below to send us your questions.


Have A Question?

Use the form below and we will give your our expert answers!

Reverse Mortgage Ask A Question


Start Your Loan with DDA today
Your local Mortgage Broker

Mortgage Broker Largo
See our Reviews

Looking for more details? Listen to our extended podcast! 

Check out our other helpful videos to learn more about credit and residential mortgages.

By Didier Malagies November 18, 2025
This is a subtitle for your new post
By Didier Malagies November 17, 2025
This is a subtitle for your new post
By Didier Malagies November 17, 2025
What Does “No Credit Score Mortgage” Mean (for FNMA) Policy Change As of November 15, 2025, Fannie Mae’s automated underwriting system (Desktop Underwriter, or DU) will no longer require a minimum third-party credit score. Fannie Mae Instead of relying on a fixed cutoff (like “you must have a 620 FICO”), DU will use Fannie Mae’s proprietary risk-assessment model to evaluate credit risk. Fannie Mae That model considers more than just credit score: payment history, “trended” credit data, nontraditional credit sources like rent, utilities, and so on. Fannie Mae Nontraditional Credit Allowed Fannie Mae’s Selling Guide includes rules for “nontraditional credit” — that is, credit history documented without a standard credit score. Selling Guide When a borrower truly has no credit score, lenders must document nontraditional credit history. For example, they might look at 12 months of cash flow or payment history (rent, utilities, insurance, etc.). Fannie requires borrowers without any credit score to complete homeownership education before closing. Selling Guide Why This Could Be a Good Thing Greater Access to Homeownership This change will likely help people who are “credit invisible” (i.e., they don’t have a traditional credit score) get conventional mortgages. Historically underserved groups (such as those who rent, use nontraditional credit, or have limited credit history) could benefit. More Holistic Underwriting By removing the rigid score minimum, DU can look at the whole financial picture. This means more weight on things like debt-to-income ratio, reserves, employment, and nontraditional credit. Using more data (rent history, payment trends) can be more predictive of whether someone will make mortgage payments than just a credit score. Potential Cost Benefits for Some Borrowers If done right, borrowers with limited credit but solid finances could qualify for a conventional loan (which may have more favorable terms than some other high-risk or subprime options). It may reduce the need for more expensive or risky loan products for people who don’t fit the “traditional” credit profile. Risks and Downsides Higher Risk for Lenders → Possibly Higher Cost Without a credit score floor, lenders are taking on more uncertainty. They may require larger down payments, lower loan-to-value ratios (LTVs), or more reserves to compensate. If the borrower is truly “credit invisible,” the lender’s verification burden is higher (to safely assess risk), which could make underwriting more stringent in non-score cases. Potential for Higher Interest Rates / Pricing Risks Even if a borrower qualifies, the interest rate may be higher compared to someone with a very good credit score, because the risk model may not “discount” as heavily without a high score. There could be loan-level price adjustments (or other risk-based pricing) tied to the riskiness of nontraditional credit profiles. Performance Uncertainty This is a newer underwriting paradigm for Fannie Mae, so long-term performance is less “battle-tested” at scale for certain nontraditional credit borrowers. If default rates go up for these loans, it could have negative implications for lenders or investors (or for how such loans are underwritten in the future). Lender Overlays Just because Fannie Mae has this policy doesn’t mean all lenders will be aggressive in offering no-score loans. Some may add their own stricter requirements (“overlays”) that make it harder than it sounds. You’ll need a lender that is comfortable underwriting nontraditional credit and willing to do the extra documentation. Is It a Good Thing For You Personally? It depends on your situation: Yes, it could be great if: You don’t have a traditional credit score but have a solid financial picture (stable income, low debt, documented payment history for rent/utilities). You want access to a mainstream, conventional mortgage. You have enough reserves/down payment to satisfy lender’s risk assessment. Be cautious if: Your income or cash flow is marginal, because the lender may not be comfortable with “no score + limited reserves.” You don’t have much documentation of nontraditional credit (you’ll need to show 12 months or more of payment history). You’re not working with a lender that understands or is experienced with Fannie Mae’s nontraditional credit program. My Verdict Overall, yes — this is a positive shift by Fannie Mae toward more inclusive, flexible underwriting. It’s likely to help more people who’ve been shut out of conventional mortgages. But it’s not “free risk”: borrowers still need to show financial responsibility, and lenders will underwrite carefully. If you are considering this type of mortgage (or someone offered it to you), I strongly recommend: Talking to a lender experienced with Fannie Mae’s nontraditional credit program. Didier Malagies nmls212566 DDA Mortgage nmls324329 .
Show More